Is AI Efficiency Just Code for Headcount Reduction in Consulting?
Corporate AI pitches sell efficiency but often mean headcount reduction. Spencer and Dave discuss how job losses to AI have already happened at large research firms through restructuring. Spencer details deployments in customer experience with AI kiosks, multi-cloud data integration to inject AI, and coding tools that spit out near-complete solutions fast. Early client quick wins include document and PDF automation for accuracy and compliance. Dave contrasts AI with blockchain, calling the latter a slow fancy spreadsheet with limited adoption while labeling AI a probabilistic non-deterministic chaos agent wired into mission-critical systems including government, creating moral and ethical risks. They debate whether AI growth drives more value or just job replacement. Spencer says younger workers reject butts in seats, use AI tools, and focus on driving value. Healthcare and professional research are heavily impacted while some sales roles grow and sustainability field scientists stay less affected.
Timestamps:
- (00:00) Corporate AI pitches sell efficiency but really mean headcount reduction – Spencer says job losses to AI have already happened at large research firms through restructuring
- (06:23) Blockchain is just a slow fancy spreadsheet with limited adoption – Dave contrasts it to AI as a probabilistic chaos agent wired into mission-critical systems including government with moral and ethical risks
- (12:04) AI growth sparks real unemployment fear – the debate on whether it creates more value or just replaces jobs
- (12:44) Younger workers reject butts in seats and use AI tools to drive value – healthcare and research hit hard while some sales roles grow and sustainability field scientists stay less affected
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Transcript
Spencer's in the room when companies run the REAL AI math — and the pitch
2
:always lands on "efficiency" until you
see what's actually being replaced.
3
:Dave's already calling
it a Faustian bargain.
4
:Spencer's not arguing.
5
:Jerremy: when a client deploys
those tools into their workforce,
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:Alex: What happens to the headcount
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:Jerremy: that
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:nobody is saying out loud or
maybe everyone's aware of and
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:still isn't saying it out loud?
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:Spencer Conley: Yeah, you know,
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:the context of of my job and also
just talking with my peers, you know,
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:I would say
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:off the books there, there's definitely
a consideration of headcount, like,
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:how can we reduce hours or maybe,
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:streamline our temp workforce
or maybe get rid of It
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:it
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:definitely happens.
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:I mean, when you're thinking about
implementing ai, you're thinking
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:about people, process and technology
and you know, part of people
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:is how many people do you have?
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:Jerremy: What are they doing?
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:Spencer Conley: can they be
repurposed to either train the AI
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:or, or move to a different, more,
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:call it
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:more impactful area of work where they can
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:take,
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:I
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:Dave: is, that is the
biggest consultant world.
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:Jerremy: Yeah.
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:Spencer Conley: Right.
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:Dave: I can tell you're a consultant.
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:It's like,
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:oh, you know, we'll, we'll see
if we can restructure this.
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:Spencer Conley: Well, I mean,
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:that's just it.
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:It's like you sell this ai right?
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:You know, you implement an ai and it's,
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:it's, the value pitch is often, hey, you
know, this will allow your staff to do,
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:to focus on more important things.
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:But like oftentimes what's
getting automated is
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:like that staff person's entire job.
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:So like, what else do they have to
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:Jerremy: Yeah.
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:Spencer Conley: then that's
when headcount comes in, right?
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:Jerremy: Yeah.
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:Spencer Conley: But
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:I would say at large research
firms and a, a couple other of
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:industries where I have friends working,
they have actually lost their jobs to ai,
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:Dave: Wow.
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:Spencer Conley: go through restructuring.
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:I'm putting that in air
quotes, but you can't see
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:Jerremy: Yeah.
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:Yeah, yeah, yeah.
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:Spencer, are you able to tell us what
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:some of these, either specific
names of the tools are or
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:like
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:what sector
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:they're in?
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:I mean, 'cause you say ai, like it could
be software, it could be coding, it
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:could be customer service, it could be,
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:how much details can you give us on that?
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:Spencer Conley: you know,
some, some broad details.
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:I would say it's, it's a full,
full suite of, of services.
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:Again, you know, this is
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:consulting lingo.
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:say it's,
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:There is a customer experience
aspect, so it's how do you
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:leverage AI to make, you know,
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:literally
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:walking into a business instead of
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:talking to a person or a bunch
of people and waiting in line.
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:It's an automated kiosk with literally
an AI screen, you know, kind of like a,
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:any sci-fi movie that?
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:Jerremy: Yeah.
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:Or Japan Just got back from there, dude.
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:Oh my gosh.
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:Yeah.
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:Tons of, tons of them.
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:Like the, the,
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:essentially
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:it was an ATM.
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:I would do all the work and then I would
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:go to my table and then
someone would bring my food.
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:Dave: Huh.
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:Spencer Conley: Yeah, well like that for,
for every industry, not just service,
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:Jerremy: Mm.
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:Spencer Conley: it's, it's, you know,
multi-cloud and distributed cloud.
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:So connecting different
cloud instances where.
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:You know, a client might have three
different versions of a cloud, from any
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:software provider, you know, pick one
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:the s and p 500.
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:But it's connecting all of those
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:to be able to inject ai, connect every
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:single piece of data in an organization,
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:and make decisions and,
and pull it all together.
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:But it's
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:Jerremy: Yeah.
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:Spencer Conley: for coding, right?
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:Like you give it a
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:Jerremy: Yeah.
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:Spencer Conley: and instead of a
developer doing it, it'll give you a
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:90% solution in like, you know,
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:Jerremy: Seconds, minutes.
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:Yeah.
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:Dave: Is,
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:there like one,
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:so like I think of AI like
this, you can either do.
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:you know, you can keep the same number
of people and you can do a lot more work,
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:or you can completely replace a function.
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:Like, I, I called my dentist the
other day and I just talked to an
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:AI and, and scheduled everything.
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:And actually it worked
really, really well.
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:You know, like I was, I was shocked.
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:like, like, you know, actually removing
a, a, a job and then it's like, okay,
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:we are not gonna do more.
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:We're going to,
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:you know, like we're going to actually
re, you know, quote unquote restructure
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:and, and, do and, and,
and shrink head count.
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:So when, when the different
implementations come in, do you see
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:like one thing that, that companies
are looking to do, or is it just like,
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:it could be anything and, and they see
where it lands you, you know what I mean?
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:Is it,
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:is it, adding more value,
like growing the pie?
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:Is it, shrinking the,
the, the, the top line?
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:or is it growing the bottom line?
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:I.
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:Spencer Conley: Yeah,
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:Jerremy: Hmm.
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:Spencer Conley: that's really good
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:question.
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:I would say it's, it's
a little bit of both.
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:I would say
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:trend that, that I'm seeing is.
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:I think a lot of clients
are interested in ai,
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:they're still a little bit hesitant.
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:So we,
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:we get in there and, and what we typically
pitch, or what I like to pitch is like,
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:you know, quick wins first, right?
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:So It's, thing, it's
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:not adding new value.
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:It's, it's really like, you
know, document automation.
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:So if like you have paper
processes, which still happen a
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:lot, or very manual, like PDFs,
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:it's reading those, putting those into
a system that you can layer AI and, and.
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:Literally route all of that
paperwork and analyze it for
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:accuracy and compliance, immediately.
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:Whereas that would take multiple people.
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:That's usually kind of
like the foot in the door.
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:you start talking about, you know,
what, what the art of the possible is.
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:That's where you start to get
to like the value drivers.
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:It's like, Hey, we would really like to do
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:really cool initiative that
is very exploratory for us.
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:You know, us being the client.
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:let's start thinking about that
now that we have some breathing
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:room with this document processing,
saving us a bunch of time.
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:So, honestly, like clients are
trying to catch up right now, and
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:once they've caught up with AI,
they start thinking bigger picture
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:Jerremy: Yeah.
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:Dave: internally yourself
are, are like, are you,
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:you
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:know, are,
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:are,
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:you taking your own medicine?
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:Spencer Conley: all the time.
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:It is
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:Dave: Yeah.
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:Spencer Conley: my job
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:so much.
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:I, I can't even
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:save me so much time.
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:Jerremy: Hmm,
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:man, that's so cool.
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:that is, is cool and scary and terrifying.
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:Dave, I'm gonna ask you a question.
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:Give me your,
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:the same level of,
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:deep dive that you gave me
on blockchain and crypto
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:on ai.
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:Like
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:what is the, so everyone in the world was
like, blockchain, blockchain, blockchain.
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:Dave: Yeah, it was
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:Jerremy: And Dave Conley
was like blockchain.
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:Fucking sucks.
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:It's awful.
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:It's the worst.
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:What does it actually do?
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:Does it do anything that
anyone wants it to do?
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:And it's not gonna work
the way anyone wants it to.
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:And you're one of the very few
people that's like poo-pooing crypto.
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:w which, which, I mean, you're,
you're not wrong really on like
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:Dave: hand, I also spent a year
looking at it because, you know,
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:Jerremy: Yeah.
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:Dave: crypto was sort of born,
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:you know, as I was,
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:as I was in a very
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:Jerremy: As you were born.
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:Dave: back in my day,
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:back in my day.
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:So I was a very senior technology level.
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:And so blockchain was really kind
of coming out, you know, Bitcoin was
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:there and we were, we were looking at
it in a bunch of different ways and
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:you know, like the one thing that
we, we liked was the aspect of,
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:you know, the permanent record.
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:And
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:it didn't replace anything.
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:It was, it was, it was a fancy
spreadsheet in the, in the cloud, right.
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:And so, like all of the
systems that we already had
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:already did what it did,
and it didn't add any value.
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:So nobody was gonna do
it because it was slow.
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:You know, it's like you could be
doing it with Oracle databases and
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:it was like, nobody's gonna replace
Oracle databases with, you know,
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:your, your, your, your Bitcoins,
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:Jerremy: Mm-hmm.
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:Dave: and.
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:You know, like we were looking at
it as, as also as adoption, right?
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:So like,
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:you know, when a technology is
important, when it's adopted,
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:so, you know, like
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:nobody had, like, we all had cell
phones for years before the iPhone
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:came out, and then the iPhone comes
out and like everybody has one within
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:a year and it just changed everything.
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:You know, like we're still trying to
figure out what's going on with blockchain
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:and it's been 15 years and it's like,
eh, you know, like if, if it's not there
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:now, it's not gonna magically get there.
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:Jerremy: Yeah,
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:Dave: with ai,
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:Jerremy: I.
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:Dave: am, I.
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:am on the way other side of this.
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:It is, this is a technology that
we don't, we don't understand.
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:Like the people who are in it, you
know, like that are in edge cases,
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:they don't understand it.
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:It is a technology.
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:We are growing.
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:we
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:Jerremy: Mm-hmm.
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:Dave: it.
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:It is,
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:it also is also a prob
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:probabilistic system.
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:Meaning it like, it, it's, it's
constantly guessing and it's always
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:bringing you sort of new things to do.
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:It is, it is not deterministic.
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:So it, it's, you know, like if you
tell it to do one thing and do it
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:this way, you know, like it might come
up with a different way of doing it.
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:so it's.
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:It is
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:a chaos agent that we simply do
not know where it's going to do.
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:Because
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:when the internet came around
and the technology really hit,
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:you know, like, it was very clear
that this was going to disrupt
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:music, disrupt, disrupt magazines,
di disrupt, you know, media.
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:And then it was like, okay, yeah,
Netflix was going to be a thing.
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:You know, like, and, and then it
was, then it was, you know, content
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:and then it was social media, like
it was so clear what the path was
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:for ai.
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:Man, it is, it is, the unknown
is probably the scariest part of
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:this, and the weirdest part is that
we are inserting this technology.
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:Treat it as a, an, as an
entity, as a, as a child
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:with superhuman skills.
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:And we are wiring it in as the central
nervous system to our most critical
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:mission critical, systems on the planet.
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:Like
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:AI is all over the government.
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:And do you really want something
that you don't understand?
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:Being all over the place inside of your
government like that is terrifying to me.
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:And not just in like a.
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:you know, like, like tinfoil hat way.
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:It's, it's that.
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:You, you understand?
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:Like a Windows operating system and
be like, okay, that's, that's Bill
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:Gates, and that's broken, right?
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:Like, we get it.
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:And then these, these systems get
very complex and, and also we get it.
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:is, we have it, it is unbounded,
uncontrollable, and it keeps on
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:going and it changes every day.
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:We are, we are not wired for that.
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:We do not know the, consequences of it.
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:And when you don't know the
consequences of something, then
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:you are not, you are not
in any control of it.
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:And then, then you start like layering in,
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:oh, we're, you know, we're gonna
start putting things that like,
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:are life and death to people.
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:On top of that,
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:nah, this is, there are more
moral and ethical questions that
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:go into this than anything else.
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:And, and, and nobody is saying,
Hey, time out here, because
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:if we do
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:means that somebody else
is going to do it first.
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:And
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:Jerremy: Hmm.
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:Dave: like the bomb is already gone off.
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:The genie is way out of the bottle.
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:And so like, if we don't keep feeding
the beast, we're equally screwed.
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:So like I, it is.
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:It is a Faustian bargain man, And
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:we we're gonna have a whole
series on ai and it is,
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:Jerremy: Yeah.
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:Well it.
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:Dave: we can only react to it.
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:we,
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:because
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:we don't have any choice, we're
gonna have to react to it.
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:Alright, that's my, that
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:there
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:Jerremy: It is a great take.
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:No, it's a great, it's
a, it's a great take.
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:It's a it, because I think
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:there, there's a, there's
a few people like,
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:alright guys, and
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:one
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:of them act, I mean, one of them
is Elon, where he is like, hold on,
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:hold on.
314
:Don't,
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:don't
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:you think we're going a little fast.
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:So do you think we're going a
little fast down this rabbit hole?
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:what's your take on that, Spencer?
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:Like, just kind of to your
point, like what Dave just said,
320
:where AI is going because
I mean, my, my general fear
321
:also, and I'll lead you with
a very long question, probably
322
:the general, the general fear is AI
becomes so good and it's so helpful
323
:and it's so usable and it happens so
quickly that in three years we have
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:55% unemployment in the country.
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:No one needs jobs anymore.
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:And that's the fear that a lot
of people don't actually have.
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:So if that does happen, what do you
see occurring in workforce dispenser?
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:Spencer Conley: Yeah.
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:You know, that's,
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:I, I almost go back and
forth on it every day.
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:It's,
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:Jerremy: Yep.
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:Wow, dude.
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:What
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:bro?
336
:Dave: So yet.
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:Jerremy: they're waiting tables, dude.
338
:I, I got, I
339
:would, I mean, I shouldn't say it's AI
waiting tables, but I, I went to three
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:restaurants where I got served by a robot.
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:Dude,
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:a robot brought my food to me.
343
:I picked it up off the tray.
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:But
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:I mean,
346
:other
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:than beer, it brought me
everything other than beer.
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:which I'm sure is probably some
law or something, but man, it's.
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:Dave: like the,
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:that's the.
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:Jerremy: Robots not 21.
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:Dave: back up a sec.
353
:So, you know, like you're, you know, like
you're, you're, you're coming into like
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:the top of your, your, your mid career,
355
:and you're.
356
:Presumably like hiring younger, like the,
the young analysts that are coming in,
357
:how are they different?
358
:You know, like did they, did,
did they do different paths?
359
:Did they, did they come to
you guys in different ways?
360
:Are they, you know, like, are they
afraid or excited about different things?
361
:Like how are they different
than where you were at that age?
362
:Spencer Conley: Yeah, there
363
:honestly very different,
in, in a good way.
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:So they,
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:think
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:I was probably one of the last waves of,
of people entering the workforce that was
367
:kind of bound to that traditional contract
that we talked about at the intro.
368
:I,
369
:was always wearing a suit.
370
:I was always trying to present, very
polished, coming in, literally just
371
:sitting at my desk until 5:00 PM
even though my clients were falling
372
:asleep just because I had to be there.
373
:You know, I called it
a but in a seat, right?
374
:I was very grounded in
that responsibility.
375
:I think now people coming into
the workforce, you know, they,
376
:they do get the technical skills.
377
:They do still go to
college for the most part.
378
:But they don't really put up with
that shit, to be honest with you.
379
:You're not, they're, they're not
just gonna sit at a desk until
380
:five if they have nothing to do.
381
:like, where can I drive value?
382
:They have all of these AI tools,
383
:They're
384
:all so connected to the internet.
385
:They're gonna be the most efficient
they can, they're very open to
386
:raising their hands to help with
additional work when they're done.
387
:Dave: Ooh.
388
:Spencer Conley: also like, Hey,
I'm taking PTO, and I don't have
389
:anything to do and it's 3:00 PM
on a Thursday, I'm gonna leave.
390
:And obviously they, they work
with us to clear it as junior
391
:practitioners, but like,
392
:they're very upfront about that, which,
like 21-year-old me would've been like,
393
:mean, I'll go hide in the bathroom for
two hours, try to take a nap instead
394
:of, you know, asking my boss to leave.
395
:And there's nothing to do.
396
:Jerremy: Hmm.
397
:Dave: Hmm.
398
:Jerremy: That's a good
399
:point,
400
:Spencer Conley: man.
401
:So.
402
:Jerremy: Yeah,
403
:it's been really
404
:Spencer Conley: good.
405
:Jerremy: I,
406
:think, I think the
407
:the adding of the value.
408
:Is
409
:the
410
:part that
411
:jumped out to me the most because
412
:that's what
413
:we're gonna have to do
414
:as,
415
:as,
416
:a nation going forward.
417
:I mean, the, the workforce, the work
418
:work is
419
:gonna be changing so dramatically over
the next five years, so, so quickly
420
:that
421
:every person listening
422
:has
423
:to imagine that not only is is it going
to shift, it is already shifting and
424
:is it is gonna happen even faster.
425
:we have to come up with that question
on a daily, weekly basis, right?
426
:How can I add more value to this
organization, to this company
427
:to keep a form of employment?
428
:you do work for yourself
429
:or by
430
:yourself or own your own business,
431
:it's gonna even be even more imperative,
to continue to add that value.
432
:What
433
:do you see,
434
:in the
435
:workforce right now that
are the most insulated?
436
:From
437
:AI and AI tools, sweeping
and chains, in industry,
438
:as
439
:you know, faster as some of the
other ones are being slower.
440
:Spencer Conley: so, so
more insulated from AI
441
:in
442
:terms of like, okay.
443
:that's a really good question.
444
:I mean,
445
:Quite frankly, everything,
everything I've, I've seen from a
446
:professional, like most, most of
the industries are being impactful.
447
:I might, for my own thought exercise,
start from most impacted to least, I mean,
448
:most impactful is I think, you know, the
the healthcare and the, the professional
449
:research, like, like a Gartner for
example, is getting heavily impacted.
450
:They used to hire, you know, NPAs and,
and folks like that to do very detailed
451
:technical research and reporting.
452
:And now it's all shifting to like AI for
some of these larger research companies.
453
:obviously technical coding, even the
big tech companies, they're, they're
454
:shifting to ai, where whereas I, would
say sales we're, we're seeing an influx
455
:in, some, some sales positions coming.
456
:So people being technically savvy,
maybe even former developers.
457
:With a technical solution that might
not have previously had ai, but
458
:now has an AI layer on top of it.
459
:They're hiring those folks
to be their salespeople.
460
:Like, Hey, I worked in, know, AutoCAD
or something like that as an engineer.
461
:Now AI is doing a lot of
that work on top of cad.
462
:but let's pull you in as a
salesperson to help sell that work.
463
:I think is is kind of,
we're seeing a shift there.
464
:but really the things that that
aren't getting impacted, I would say
465
:sustainability isn't getting impacted a
lot of the sectors, or sorry, a lot of
466
:the accelerators around sustainability,
like how we monitor climate impact, do.
467
:geospatial analytics, all of that stuff.
468
:you know, water, water analytics for
water quality are getting bolstered
469
:by AI but the scientists and the
people behind it going out into the
470
:field are not being impacted as much.
471
:they're really just
getting a better tool belt.
472
:Right.
473
:those are the things that
stick out to me right now, but
474
:it's, it's a great question.
475
:Jerremy: I love it.
476
:Alex: Dave calls AI an unbounded
chaos agent wired into systems
477
:nobody fully controls — Spencer's
not fighting that take.
478
:But 25 years out, which workers
actually WIN this thing?
479
:That forecast is next.
