Mag 7 Earnings, Oil Shock, and Why Markets Don't Add Up
Amazon just hit the highest price in human history. Dave Conley calls this the largest oil shock in history and notes that nobody is saying "this time it's different" — yet markets keep climbing. Jerremy Alexander Newsome walks through specific chart levels and earnings setups for Apple, Amazon, Google, and Microsoft with actual buy zones, not sentiment. The underlying tension: markets have decoupled from the physical economy because the modern economy is now just pushing zeros and ones around. Dave's political frame caps it — government is betting on electrons over atoms, crypto and AI infrastructure over healthcare and real jobs, while the promise of school-to-career-to-retirement quietly dies for anyone under 30.
Timestamps:
- (00:00) Markets climbing anyway – nobody thinks they should, but here we are
- (00:36) Apple and Amazon setups – chart levels, buying zones, all-time highs
- (02:30) Tim Cook out, hardware guy in – what Apple's CEO shift signals for investors
- (05:51) Google earnings outlook – near all-time highs, gap scenarios, buy zones
- (06:54) Microsoft's brutal 34% selloff – AI scare, the bounce, what comes next
- (08:54) Cash is the new denominator – why massive multiples stopped mattering
- (10:00) Biggest oil shock in history – markets at all-time highs, cognitive dissonance
- (11:21) Zeros and ones economy – digital decoupling that may never reverse
- (12:42) Atoms vs. electrons – what government is missing about real jobs
- (14:09) Next up – Steven Orr, Big Beat on Wall Street, later this week
Transcript
Hope you're all doing fantastic.
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:Dave DC Conley and myself with
solving America's problems.
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:takeover.
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:Just reviewing markets, the
intersection of finance, politics,
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:money, what's moving, what we're
looking at, we're still talking.
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:Trump, Iran, peace deals, oil's
going higher, market's going higher.
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:No one feel like it should
be going higher, but it is.
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:We're here again with that discussion.
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:How are you, Mr.
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:Dave?
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:Dave Conley: Oh, amazing.
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:It's another beautiful day
in paradise where I'm at and
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:beautiful, beautiful, sunny day
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:Jerremy Newsome: lemme do a super
fast screen share because I will at
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:least go over some quick perspectives
on earnings because we do have.
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:The Mag seven, a lot of big
earnings coming out this week.
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:So here's Apple, and Apple
comes out Thursday night.
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:What's really interesting about
Apple is we're we are gapping
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:down this exact moment in time.
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:we're here at 2 67 pre-market
and the way I'm noticing it
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:is you had just a fantastic.
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:Really nice single hammer day.
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:That was on April 7th off the 200, I
think we just trade back down to there.
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:That would be a fantastic
buying spot on Apple 2 52.
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:Um, I'm also noticing big, big timeframe.
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:You have a really interesting,
uh, asymmetrical triangle forming,
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:which not a thousand percent
sure what that means other than
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:just the compression area event.
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:So if I just really zoom out, that's
what we're experiencing right now.
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:It's just a big slowdown and apple.
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:So again, trading it down to the
two 50 price point over earnings
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:just makes tons of sense to me.
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:and then it'll be a buying opportunity.
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:Amazon.
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:Huge, huge double bottom a big
timeframe, and we have not come
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:back to test the neckline yet.
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:So this would actually be one of
the easier purchases in my opinion.
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:If Amazon got down to the a
hundred, 200 on the daily, this
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:is the, uh, simple moving average.
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:So that would be about 2 26.
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:That would be the double bottom
for that neck line again.
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:Will that actually happen?
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:Probably not, but that'd be a super, super
kind of, almost a layup in my opinion,
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:from a, from a purchasing standpoint.
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:Dave Conley: Well, and,
and, oh, I'm sorry.
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:Go ahead.
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:Jerremy Newsome: no, you're good.
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:I was gonna say, this is just,
it's incredible how fast this
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:thing bounced off of the 100
simple on the weekly chart again.
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:Uh, and we're at, we're at all time highs.
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:Highest price in human history on
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:Amazon.
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:Dave Conley: Wow.
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:And as, as we say on the, on the, on
the Tuesday, Thursday, as I say on it.
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:And, and you and I when we're, we're on
that with, with Steve, and what we're
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:trying to do here is ensuring that.
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:That, uh, particularly people who are
doing tradings understand the intersection
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:of money and politics because the
biggest spender and the biggest employer
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:on the planet is the US government.
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:Jerremy Newsome: Mm-hmm.
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:Dave Conley: not paying attention
to politics, then you're not paying
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:attention to your portfolio, and that
is something you've really gotta do.
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:Now how much you pay attention to it?
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:Well, think about it this way,
it's just reframing your brain.
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:We just talked about Apple.
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:So Apple, Tim Cook was CEO
and he's like stepping down
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:and John Turn has taken over.
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:You know, Tim was a finance guy, right?
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:Like it was all about money and
that was all about the app store
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:and the money flowed, right?
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:Like that was a big, big change for Apple.
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:And Tim was also a guy who really built
out the lobbying arm of, of Apple.
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:So they got really, really involved
with, lobbying the, the government.
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:John is a hardware guy, and
that's product execution.
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:That's all about supply lines.
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:We talk about that all
last year with tariffs.
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:Uh, and it's about chips, right?
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:So like, that's that world.
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:So it's kind of a
curious about the timing.
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:Uh, like what does that mean?
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:I don't know.
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:Like are they just gonna focus
back on that stuff or do they know
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:what we don't know really, which
is like, that's gonna be the focus.
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:They can, like, they can
literally hunker down.
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:Sit on that money, uh, focus on, uh,
product execution and they can let
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:the world burn down if they wanted to.
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:And if it was going
great, then that's fine.
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:They're gonna keep on
making money that way.
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:So I think it's curious
that this just happened.
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:Jerremy Newsome: I agree.
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:Yeah, for Apple, it's a super,
super, super important point.
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:Because they still have them and
Berkshire Hathaway both have hundreds
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:of billions of dollars of just cash
to deploy, sitting there waiting.
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:And you know the very, very common,
you'll hear economists say, flow is king
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:and all, but extremely important, having
a large amount of cash ready to go.
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:I think is also relatively
crucial, especially as a business
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:because that's profits, right?
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:We talked, uh, to an incredible
not that long ago who said,
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:Dave Conley: Hmm.
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:Jerremy Newsome: revenue is
vanity profits or sanity.
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:So you have to have the cash, you
actually have to have the thing
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:that the business is supposed to do.
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:And Apple and Tim today,
wonderful job of that.
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:And talking about Amazon, I mean, highest
prices in human history, all time highs.
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:That's important to know because while.
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:Huge infrastructure play, huge
CapEx play for data centers.
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:Massive, massive employer here
in the US and really globally.
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:And they are, I think probably the
heartbeat of the economy in a big way.
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:Right?
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:Like if, Amazon boxes stop
showing up to people's houses.
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:Dave Conley: That's everything I, I.
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:Jerremy Newsome: that's everything.
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:Now we're in a little bit of a pickle.
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:Dave Conley: You can see that this week,
you can see all of the economic stuff and
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:how it affects Amazon in real time, right?
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:Like there's consumer
confidence that's on Tuesday.
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:There is, um, durable goods orders.
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:That's, uh, the preliminary on March.
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:There's Powell talking the
FOMC, like that's all econ.
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:so like these are, these are the
things that if you just, if you watch
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:those releases and watch the Amazon
earnings, like you will see it.
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:You'll see it right away.
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:Jerremy Newsome: Yep,
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:totally.
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:to pop back through.
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:And as you any insight,
man, throw it our way.
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:let's go look at Google.
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:So Google also, earnings on Wednesday and
Google also right at right at the highest
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:price in human history we're, we're very,
very close to making new all time highs.
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:You had a quick little pullback
on Google, which was down 21%.
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:and then we just started really out of it
because, again, from an AI perspective, I
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:Dave Conley: Right.
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:Jerremy Newsome: it's the internet,
so they're, they're still gonna
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:continue to do their thing.
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:Uh, I think just very, very
viable stock long term.
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:So that being stated, I think
Google probably gaps up on earnings.
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:I'd be extremely surprised if they don't.
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:It would trade down and then give
you a great buying opportunity.
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:But for some reason if Google
does gap down on earnings, very,
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:very viable in the three 10 space.
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:That would be a, a nice gap in this
general area around 3 0 8, 3 0 9 to
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:kind of buy the pullback overall.
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:'cause again, that trend is quite bullish.
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:Microsoft has been
getting just beat around.
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:Brutally for a while, and it's
starting to slowly bounce outta here.
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:The a hundred daily is being
resistance for Microsoft.
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:They too have earnings this week
and here's the weekly chart.
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:So Microsoft had a, had a really
delicious, delicious pullback from five
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:50 all the way to three 50, which was 34%.
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:trade down to the identical
price of April slash.
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:March of last year during the tariffs
when again, I couldn't figure out exactly
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:why Microsoft was selling off because of
tariffs, and neither could anyone else.
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:So they crushed.
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:They went up 55% and I think the
exact same thing's gonna happen.
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:I.
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:Uh, again, uh, this is a, a software
AI scare, this massive drop right here.
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:You know, the, the software bubble, the
AI bubble, the whatever's collapsing,
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:and that's just not the case.
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:I mean, I, I don't know how Microsoft
is being long-term, negatively impacted.
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:I think this was, you and I
were talking about this early
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:this year, late last year was.
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:could be an Epstein file, bill Gates,
you know, of just internal consumer
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:sentiment causing the self to happen.
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:And it did.
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:Dave Conley: Right.
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:Jerremy Newsome: now that we're down here
to these levels where people just could
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:not, not stand at being as low as it is,
we've had a really, really strong bounce.
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:I don't exactly, uh, expect Microsoft to
do anything huge on earnings, but again,
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:if it does gap down back to three 80.
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:think that would be a huge gift
for anyone who wants to own it.
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:And if it gaps up, which is actually,
I think most likely we gap up, we trade
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:down and then we, we probably go higher.
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:And that's the ironic part, is looking
at a lot of the charts, looking at
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:tons of the companies, there's a lot
of the companies out there that say,
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:Hey, we had a huge sell off the broader
markets are still at all time highs.
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:Dave Conley: Right.
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:Jerremy Newsome: if we have good earnings,
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:Dave Conley: Yeah.
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:Jerremy Newsome: keep going.
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:Dave Conley: OI don't know.
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:Everything is at all time highs, right?
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:Like everything, and I say
this over and over, I probably
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:said this to you for two years.
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:I don't get it right.
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:Then I, I finally hit on like the
econ guys and, and some of the market
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:guys and, and listening enough to
you, that it's like, okay, well.
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:Like how you thought of this as a, as
a young, you know, as a young, back
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:in my day, you know, back as a youngin
is different than how it is now.
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:You know, like it is all about cash.
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:You know, like the
denominator is about cash.
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:It's not, uh, you know, it's not priced
to earnings, it's priced to cash.
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:And like the, these things are
generating so much cash that like when
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:you put it underneath that denominator.
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:Then these, uh, then these, these,
these huge multiples don't, uh,
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:don't, don't matter as much.
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:I don't, I don't know if I believe
that because, you know, like there's
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:a little bit of, of like question
mark in my head, and now I sort
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:of get where it's coming from.
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:It's not necessarily froth frothy bubble.
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:It means that we just started
measuring it a little bit differently.
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:So I, I, I, I get that, you know,
like, it, it, it feels a little
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:bit better in my mental construct,
but what I can't get over.
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:Is
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:the price of oil and this being
the largest oil shock in history.
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:And every time we've had an oil
shock, it's really negatively
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:impacted the global economy.
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:And I have not heard anybody say
this time it's different, right?
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:So.
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:What I, you know, I think I said
it on Thursday, Tuesday's show I
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:wasn't on Thursday, Tuesday show.
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:I'm like, dude, the, the carpets
aren't matching the drapes on this.
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:Like, like, there's just probably
not the most deft way of saying
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:it, but you know, like there is a
cognitive dissonance of the market not
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:reflecting reality and what's actually
happening in the economy and the demand
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:destruction that's going on, like.
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:Dramatically, like all of these, you know,
uh, the, the prices going through the roof
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:in the United States, all of these, uh,
airlines, you know, like 20,000 flights
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:getting canceled, like, you know, things.
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:We have shipped most of our
manufacturing to Asia, and Asia is
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:hemorrhaging because they can't,
you know, they can't keep their.
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:Trees open.
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:They don't literally have the fuel.
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:So I like it.
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:It, it feels like the, the, the house
has burned down to the ground and we're
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:just rolling in cash, like, like, uh, you
know, uh, demi Morin indecent proposal.
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:Like there's, there's like, what's,
why, like how, how is this possible
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:to be so disconnected from reality?
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:Jerremy Newsome: That
answer, I don't know.
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:yeah, that one, I'm not that one.
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:I don't know.
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:'cause we, we are, we've been disconnected
for a while and it's, it's, I think
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:that's kind of what it is, where
it's this cognitive dissonance where,
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:you've mentioned it so many times and,
and it's a perspective that I really
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:like where you're saying, essentially
people are just pushing zeros and ones
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:around to make more zeros and ones,
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:Dave Conley: Yeah.
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:Jerremy Newsome: and that's
the economy that we're in.
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:It's like.
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:I think that's probably the truest
statement I've heard in a very long time
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:because I take that to heart 'cause I'm
thinking Yeah, that's absolutely correct.
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:And since that is happening, is it
going to go away or are we gonna
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:Dave Conley: Yeah.
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:Jerremy Newsome: doing it?
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:And I agree with you.
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:I think we're gonna continue pushing
bits around digitally globally.
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:Dave Conley: Right.
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:Jerremy Newsome: Macroeconomically
and those zeros and ones are gonna
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:keep getting bigger and people are
just gonna continue to not to care,
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:with this global ignorance, if you
wanna call it that, until it doesn't.
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:And I'm always really bad at
figuring out the exact time that
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:the music stops in musical chairs.
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:Uh, I never really won that game, but what
I did do would just grab my own chair.
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:And just go kind of play,
play a away from everyone
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:Dave Conley: I, the, so, and this is
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:the political angle of it, you
know, like my point is really basic,
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:you know, I believe we need to
be pushing atoms, not electrons.
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:And I think we need to be
pro-human and not anti-human.
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:And I see, you know, like the, the,
the policies that are happening,
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:the discussions that are happening
in the political space where the
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:government is spending money, time,
and energy is all about electrons
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:and it's all about anti-human.
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:Like there's nothing in
there that it's about.
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:Healthcare and, uh, you know, uh,
happiness and jobs and it's all, uh,
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:crypto and weed and, and gambling.
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:And uh, you know, I'm like, oh God.
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:And then it's, it's, and then it's,
it's AI and infrastructure where it's
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:like, okay, great, but we're not having
the discussion like you and I are
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:having on solving America's problems.
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:And there will be a link down
below for you to listen to.
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:You know, we we're talking
about what the job jobs are
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:for this century and how this.
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:This sort of the, the lie of
go to school, get a job, live a
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:happy life, have a family retire.
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:You know, like the idea that somebody
could like be 20 years old and spend their
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:entire life in a, in a job that they love.
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:And, and that's, you know, that's
the lie that's not happening
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:for 20 year olds these days.
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:And over the top of all of that is.
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:Ai.
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:Right.
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:Uh, how that is fundamentally
changing everything.
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:So come listen to our show.
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:We're talking a lot about it, and
that's where the, the politics
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:and the finance really hit.
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:Jerremy Newsome: That's right.
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:Yep.
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:Appreciate everyone tuning in.
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:Thanks so much for listening.
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:Dave and I will be back later
this week with Steven Orr,
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:AKA big beat on Wall Street.
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:And thanks so much for listening
to both the Quasar and the Solving
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:America's Problems Connection.
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:Appreciate you all being a part
of this journey, and excited to
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:see you around in the future.
