Economic Crush: Tariffs, AI Fallout, and America's Farming Deflation Trap

Alex: 00:00:00

Dave flags tariff fallout crushing soybean exports to China, while

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Jerremy notes the clown-show bailouts

propping Wall Street over farmers.

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If food deflation hides deeper rural

pain, how long until the system breaks?

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Jerremy: We needed.

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We need some more energy out there.

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We needed some bigger energy grid, so we

bought a whole bunch of Lithium America,

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and that's actually relatively rare.

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Again, in my expertise, I haven't

seen the US government directly buying

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a bunch of individual stocks before

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Dave: So what do you think

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Jerremy: and then talking about

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Dave: Yeah, because there's

something to be said about having

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a so sovereign wealth fund, right?

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Like Alaska does it with their

oil, leases, everybody in Alaska

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gets a check in a lot of countries.

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They do have sovereign wealth

funds that do invest in

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things, and make things happen.

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There's something to be said for that.

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But on the other hand, given

the country I'm in right now is

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that it's the cronies that get.

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The investments and it

distorts capitalism, right?

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So thing people and things are propped

up not for good products or good

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reasons, or national security stuff.

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It's, because they're buddy buddies.

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Jerremy: That's exactly correct.

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So it's interesting.

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Yeah.

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The Sovereign Wealth Fund.

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Sure.

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Absolutely.

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Like El Salvador their Sovereign

Wealth fund is Bitcoin.

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He's buying all the Bitcoin he can, like

that's where all of his, yeah, that's

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where all of his capital and all of

the, that's where all the money's going,

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Dave: Huh.

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Jerremy: which is pretty nifty.

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So that's been working

very well for El Salvador.

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And again, I don't think it's a horrible

thing, but what is extremely interesting

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is like it's gonna keep happening and

it's gonna keep driving the market higher.

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And we are, we're going to get, it's

inevitable at this point, but we are

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going to get into a pretty severe bubble.

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And we all know that music's gonna stop

at some point, just the way it works.

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And I just don't know when

that's gonna be, but I don't

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think it's any time soon-ish.

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I think we still have a

little bit of ways to go.

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Yep.

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I still think we have

a little bit of ways to

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Dave: Wow.

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Really?

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Wow.

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Jerremy: Yeah, we will absolutely

get another correction in

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the market sooner than later.

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Dave: But is it gonna

be the kind of, yeah.

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Do you think it's gonna be the correction

that we actually need to get back

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to, human valuations That make sense?

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Because they don't, the entire

stock market is essentially fueled

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by AI and tech companies, right?

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That's where most of the valuation

is, and companies are already saying,

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at least what I'm reading or hearing,

maybe you know you know better than me,

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but you know that companies aren't yet

seeing the return on investment from ai.

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That it's expensive in some ways.

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And yeah, they see a lot of benefits

on the low end the new workers,

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which is not good for people who

are just getting outta college.

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Or they're, they can delay hiring.

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For any number of fields, we know that

it's gonna completely destroy them.

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Wipe 'em out.

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I, but we will do a series, I promise

everybody's listening to this on ai.

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I, that is, that I think is gonna be like

the, I am, I'm a very dark on ai, so I

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can't wait for us to dig in on that one.

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But just case in point, right?

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These AI companies are putting data

centers in all of these communities

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all over the United States in

order to buy cheap electricity.

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And they're pumping a lot of money

into the state and local governments

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to say, Hey we're gonna, we're

gonna suck all your electricity out.

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And, we aren't gonna pay anything for it.

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And the states go, okay, no problem.

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And so the people who actually live

there are coming up on, on bills

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that are like two and three times

higher than they've been in the past.

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Because these grids and these power

stations can't keep up with all of

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the money that's needed to, do your.

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Do your funny video, me memes of

the house leader, in sombreros.

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That, costs like thousands and

thousands of homes worth of electricity.

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And so there's developing a huge backlash

because, they, these companies can go

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in and buy the local representatives

and basically say, Hey, we're gonna,

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we're gonna put all these jobs in with

this data center in your backyard.

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Little does anybody realize I was in

this back, back in my day, data centers.

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Nobody works at a data center.

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They're huge, but, they're

run by handful of people.

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It's not thousands of jobs.

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It's there might be a thousand jobs, to

build one of those things, but then it's

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all gone and it's run, it's all automated.

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Jerremy: correct.

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Dave: yeah, they're sucking

up all the electricity and

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we're getting, f fart videos

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Jerremy: Uhhuh?

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Dave: And then your job goes

away because, it can be done.

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If you're not turning a wrench, forget it.

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Like your job's gone.

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I dunno.

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Okay.

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So the entire market

is built on AI bubble.

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We know this.

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Companies are already saying,

eh, return's not there.

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Except for we're not hiring as much,

which is a drag on the economy.

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So now what?

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Like you say we have a ways to

go, but like when this I feel like

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I'm the one taking crazy pills.

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Jerremy: Yeah.

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Yeah.

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We the, again, relatively unfortunate

news, truthfully, in my opinion,

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is this, just the simple fact that

we do, we just haven't reached

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the crazy high euphoria stage.

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Totally.

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And,

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Dave: it drives a wealth effect, right?

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People feel richer, so it

keeps the economy going.

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Jerremy: Yep.

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Dave: There is some cracks though.

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I did some research.

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I did my research.

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There are some cracks and it's in

travel and leisure, which is like

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one of the first ones to bend.

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And you're in the center of

the apocalypse on that one.

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Las Vegas is it's dark there,

like it's, it is not good.

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I don't know if you've been down

to the strip, but it is ghost

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town from what all the data says.

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Jerremy: Nope, that's, yeah.

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Uhuh that I, I agree.

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I have read that data.

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I have, I've read it.

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And then I go outside.

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I'm like, I don't know what that

data is doing or how that's coming.

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Like it is slammed, dude.

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Slammed.

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Oh

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Dave: I'm gonna come visit

you in a couple of weeks and

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Wanna see what's going

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Jerremy: like we're gonna,

we're gonna go out this weekend.

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I got a big conference.

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I'm be hosting here and.

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40 people are coming from all

over the country and it's gonna be

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absolutely packed everywhere we go.

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And you can't get dinner reservations,

you can't obviously we're, we

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booked everything in advance, but

it's, oh man, it's an absolute

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thunderstorm of people everywhere.

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Yeah, I get, the data is saying that

like the tourism is slowing down.

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I'm like, man, if this is slow.

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I don't know.

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I don't wanna know what fast is like.

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It's pretty crazy.

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So having fun with it, man, just

enjoying the, seeing it firsthand of

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just what really is going on out there

and not necessarily in Vegas, but just

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in the economy because the way I see

this right now, yeah, overall markets,

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pretty much everything that we have.

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It really does seem like we are

going to keep going for a bit.

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We will have some type of correction

and it will feel fast and quick,

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but it will get bought up and then

we'll just kinda keep going higher.

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The AI episodes, people

are gonna love that.

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That's gonna be really fun because

again, there's a lot of like scarcity

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slash abundance conversations are

gonna come from that as well, meaning

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just the mindset of this can be really

bad, or this can be really good.

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There is a lot of opportunity

that can happen here.

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There's a lot of wealth, there's

a lot of speed, there's a lot of

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access, there's a lot of ability,

there's a lot of cost savings.

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There's tons of opportunities

that are available.

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And there's a lot that can go very

well, very right, very correctly.

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So we'll just kinda have to see

if that's what ends up happening.

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Dave: there is a under the radar thing

that I actually put in our little report

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here that I want you paying attention to,

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Jerremy: Okay.

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Dave: and it has to do with the

US food production, so all of

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these tariffs that Trump put on.

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Have really affected US

agriculture and the big one

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that's showing up is in soybeans.

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So soybean harvest just happened

and we are sitting on the

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world's supply of soybeans.

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Soybeans aren't really eaten in the United

States, if to tofu, that's what you get.

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It's almost all exported and

China is the number one importer.

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They basically buy all of our soybeans.

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And they haven't bought any, zero

because of the tariffs and they've

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been sourcing 'em other places.

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Biggest one that they sourced from was

Argentina, but Argentina's prices were

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high, and so everybody's waiting for

the US to come in with their harvest.

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But then we bailed out Argentina like a

couple of weeks ago, and the first thing

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that Argentina did, first thing that

Malay did was drop the prices of soybeans.

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And so China swooped in, bought up

all of the soybeans in Argentina,

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so we got that going for us.

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So American farmers are

still sitting on soybeans.

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By the way, the same

thing's happening on beef.

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We export a lot of our beef and we do it

to China, and China's bought none of it.

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Jerremy: Huh.

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Dave: And so what's gonna happen?

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We're gonna see some deflation,

certainly in US food, right?

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Like it's gonna get cheaper.

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Beef's gonna get cheaper.

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The feed for livestock is gonna go really

cheap because you got all these soybeans.

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Jerremy: Yep.

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Dave: But we did the tariffs,

then we bail out Argentina.

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Argentina swooped in, and

now we're gonna bail out the

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farmers using the tariff money.

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Like it feels like we're

being run by clowns.

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Like

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On top of it, like the Doge team they

gutted us Department of Agriculture.

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So even if we did cut a check to

all the farmers, it's not actually

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even a cutting a check to farmers.

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They're actually cutting a check to

Wall Street who backs all the farmers.

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They're check cutting a check to

insurance companies and the banks.

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So none of it actually

goes to the farmers.

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It goes to the giant

agricultural companies.

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Sure.

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Bill Gates get a check.

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We'll get a check from this, but they

don't have anybody at the US Department

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of Agriculture to actually do the

checks and the government shut down.

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So

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Jerremy: Clown show.

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Dave: clown show.

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So this is what I want

everybody to pay attention to.

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'cause you and I have been talking about

inflation a lot and a lot of it is in.

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Our groceries.

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Boy, I think we're gonna see

some deflation in and some

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spiraling out on food prices.

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We probably need some of it, but

it's gonna cause a lot of heartache

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and a lot of unusual things

happening in the United States.

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So I think big changes afoot

in the agricultural space.

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So pay attention.

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Let's see what happens with with food.

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And I predict beef.

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If you're, if you're like, ah,

I'm buying hamburger this week

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because I can't get a steak.

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Yeah I get it.

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I hear you.

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See if you can buy a steak

and in four or five weeks,

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Jerremy: Just, you mean like the

price is gonna be astronomical?

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Huh?

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Dave: The price is gonna go down.

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So nobody's buying them.

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Jerremy: Fascinating.

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We need some decoupling of

prices, that's for sure.

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Prices are very high, but it is just

'cause we're losing we're losing

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the soybean apocalypse is happening.

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It is happening.

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Dave: All right.

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What's going on online?

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I continuing my streak

of not being online.

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Jerremy: Proud of you.

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Well done.

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Dave: Appreciate it,

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Jerremy: Yeah.

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Dave: but in preparation for

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Jerremy: for your, yeah, it's usually

good for your health to just take a break.

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Dave: taking a break, I'm listening

to the new Dan Brown book.

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It's fun, good times.

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So what's going on in line?

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I got something here.

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Some Netflix animated series,

dead End Paranormal Park.

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Did that pop up for you?

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Did you

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Jerremy: Not the paranormal park.

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I do know that it featured trans youth and

there was a lot of, the Libs of TikTok had

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a big viral post igniting boycott calls

and debates on kid media indoctrination

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Trump, sorry, not Trump apologies.

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Musk was like on October 1st.

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He was like cancel Netflix

for the health of your kids.

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That's pretty much what he said.

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And, Netflix is down since this,

since that post, but not as

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much as people are leading it

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Dave: Off record highs, right?

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Jerremy: Exactly from the highest price

in human history in July, but the last

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week it's down two and a half percent, 3%.

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So it's, yeah, I don't know if that's

causing it, but approach for me, and

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again, I think this is somewhere else on

here as well, about the, what happened in

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Tennessee with the gender affirming care.

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The Supreme Court League was over.

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That was something about Tennessee, right?

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Dave: Yeah, it says Tennessee Ban on

gender affirming care for minor six three

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ruling bolstering similar state laws

and intensifying the national debate on

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parental rights versus youth autonomy.

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Yeah, it's just saying

you can't trans kids.

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I think, this deserves its own series

that we gotta, really dive into.

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Jerremy: Fu future episode

on trans, the trans movement

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incoming, is what you're saying?

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Dave: Yeah, there's a lot here.

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I think it's, certainly a very,

it's a difficult topic, right?

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There's a lot of energy

on both sides on this one.

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So I think tackling it in

a very respectful way would

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I think really benefit.

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Hearing what's going on.

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I was raised by a gay man.

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So I have some perspective

on, on this space.

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And what I'm really heartened by

is because I, being raised by a gay

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man, I have gay people in my family.

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My, my stepfather is certainly gay.

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And you know what I've been

hearing from that group?

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Is, that the LGB part of L-G-B-T-Q,

the LGB part is they're standing

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up and saying, Hey, can we, you

need to separate the LGB from the

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T, and the Q because fundamentally

we're, we're apples and oranges.

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The T side is all about.

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Identity and who you feel you are

and right body and all of that stuff.

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It's wrapped up in a lot of mental

health issues and social issues

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and, that's a that's its own thing.

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And the LGB side and what it's always

been has been about who you love.

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That's it.

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Like it's very basic.

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It's okay, like we are being

discriminated on the basis of who we love.

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So let's fix that.

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And that was always the struggle

on the LGB side, T side.

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Whole different thing.

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It is not the same thing.

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In fact, I, many of my

gay friends and family.

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See the trans movement as

being extremely homophobic.

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And I think, that might be a

surprise to a number of folks.

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So I, I really want to, I want to, I

wanna do this series on this when we

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get around to it to be like, okay, we

hear a lot of things in the narratives,

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but let's talk to people who are.

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Lesbian, bisexual, and gay

and how they're lumped in.

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And let's talk to trans people that,

let's talk to de Transitioners.

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And the people who have been in my

life and are in my life, who are in

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the trans community are absolutely

horrified by trans activists.

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Jerremy: So many cool things to look

forward to, man, I'm excited about talking

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about yeah, not only that, 'cause again, I

think we need a place that's open, that's

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transparent, that's vulnerable, that's

safe, that's collective, that's intuitive.

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We also need some opposing parties

and some opposing sides to just debate

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it out some good future conversations

in that we can at least put trans

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rights, what that looks like.

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I noticed definitely some divisions

out there with the T's and the Q's

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and the G's and the B's and L's.

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They're like, they're not

getting along right now.

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Definitely some polarization.

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Dave: I think we can have respectful

conversations on it and I'm looking

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forward to that conversation.

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: 00:16:22

So you, those of you listening,

we're in our voting session.

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We have a couple of really

cool guests coming up.

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We're just getting ready for them.

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: 00:16:28

We're doing this episode this week in

order to account for their schedules.

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: 00:16:34

And so we're coming back into, to voting.

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: 00:16:36

You'll hear that beginning

next week again, but then.

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: 00:16:40

We're looking for our next topic,

and so we're we're debating

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internally what it might be.

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Maybe it's the crisis of boys and

young men in the United States.

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We can talk about guns and gun control and

the nature of guns in the United States.

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: 00:16:53

Jerremy: So just the gun

debate, just gun conversation I

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: 00:16:56

think will be really exciting.

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: 00:16:58

Dave: What do we call it?

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: 00:16:59

Is it right to call it gun control?

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: 00:17:01

I think gun advocates

would bristle at that?

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: 00:17:04

Is it just guns in America

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: 00:17:06

Jerremy: The second amendment,

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: 00:17:08

Dave: oh, so that's this week on solving

America's problems with Dave and Jerremy.

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: 00:17:15

What do we als always

say, give us five stars.

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: 00:17:17

Share this episode.

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: 00:17:19

That always helps us out, right?

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: 00:17:20

Jerremy: Thanks for tuning in.

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: 00:17:21

Thanks for being here.

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: 00:17:22

We will be back on future episodes.

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: 00:17:25

Make sure to give this

one a five star rating.

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: 00:17:28

Share it with your friends and family.

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: 00:17:29

We are on every single station

that lists podcast everywhere

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: 00:17:35

and until the next episode.

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: 00:17:38

We love you.

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: 00:17:38

We see you.

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: 00:17:39

We are you.

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: 00:17:41

you.